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木蘭
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2025/4/29 上午 09:21:00
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這位美國頂級經濟學家認為，出現「滯脹」衰退的可能性為 65%
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亞當波森表示通膨即將上升
傑弗裡·巴塔什
最後更新：2025年4月17日晚上10:32（美國東部時間）
首次出版：2025年4月17日下午4:10（美國東部時間）
一位著名經濟學家認為，由於川普政府的貿易戰，經濟衰退的可能性現在更大，美國可能遭受幾十年來最大的「滯脹」衝擊。
曾任美聯儲和英格蘭銀行官員的亞當·波森 (Adam Posen) 在本週的一次演講中表示：“我們可能會陷入經濟衰退，也可能不會，但無論如何，我們都將面臨通貨膨脹。”
The influential Posen, now the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, put the odds of recession at 65%.
He said even if Trump strikes deals with various countries, tariffs are likely to remain in place. These measures would raise prices, increase inflation and slow the economy — the recipe for a period of stagflation.
Stagflation refers to an economy suffering from high inflation and weak or even negative economic growth. The last time the U.S. suffered from stagflation was in the late 1970s and early 1980s, a period of tremendous economic turmoil.
Even if Republicans further reduce taxes and cut regulations, Posen said, households and businesses probably won’t increase spending and investment because of a chronic state of uncertainty fostered by the Trump White House.
Posen pointed out that the U.K. economy has been less stable since its exit from the European Union in 2020 because of all the uncertainty it spawned in Britain after the breakup with that country’s largest trading partner.
The “radically different” economic policies pursued by President Donald Trump, including the use of constant threats against other nations, has created even more uncertainty by severing decades-old economic relationships with all of America’s key allies, Posen said.
The result is that countries would band together more to protect themselves against U.S. actions instead of aligning themselves with America.
All the disruptions caused by the trade wars and Trump’s tactics, Posen said, would lead to shortages of critical goods and services that push up prices and raise inflation.
Efforts to ease the damage from tariffs could then lead the Trump administration to spend even more money, subsidizing American businesses hurt the most. That could also add to inflation, Posen said.
Other U.S. businesses that benefit from tariffs, meanwhile, would have more power to raise prices on customers since they would face less competition from foreign rivals.
The Federal Reserve, for its part, has already cut interest rates too much given the still-elevated rate of inflation, Posen said. The central bank could fall behind the curve once prices begin to rise again.
The result: The Fed could be forced to sharply raise interest rates, and quickly, adding to the stress on the economy.
If all that came to pass, Posen said, it would take several years or more to repair the damage.
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